Hangover
JFK to Rome
I get through security and my hangover from last evening’s revelry is just starting to wear off
I ain’t never drinkin’ no more - I swear on momma
I shouldn’t be sweating like I’m training for the triathlon, but there is so much Casamigos in my system that my body feels like its been marinating in a ginormous vat of tequila and lime for the last ten hours
You know, like how they marinate baby back ribs or pulled pork, deep in the heart of Texas … say, Corpus Christi
‘tis a miracle I even made it to the airport for I almost typed in La Guardia or Newark into my Lyft app
JFK DUDE !
… J ... F … effin K, I had to remind myself four times
I almost made it to the wrong terminal because, Delta and Air France depart from different terminals, but they are partners, so I really need to pay attention to - if this stupid flight is Delta or Air France, even though it has both call signs, like DL 2550 and AF 4 and whatnot
and I used to work for an airline, so this kind of drivel shouldn’t confuse me
Hungover and need to think - I ain’t never drinkin’ again
Half my brain is marinating in tequila while the other half wishes God somehow fast forwards this day, so I can wake up fresh as a daisy, on the morrow
Did I switch off the stove ? I know I cooked poached eggs and ham and I ate them too. But it is all a haze. Let me text Jason at the front desk to go check if I switched the stove off
He my boy - besides, I also gave him a large bottle of Henny for Christmas, he'd help me out
Minutes pass …
J texted me back to say its been switched off, and that he took a swig from the open casamigos on my wooden vegetable cutting board in the kitchen
Thanks J - you da man, and don’t let Erica tell you that you is a loser - for blowing all your rent money on FanDuel, on your Giants
I have a splitting headache that no amount of Excedrin will help, and I’m thirsty like a honey badger in the Sahara
This Osprey backpack feels like a 700 pound Gorilla that is clawing into my back, and the goddamned water fountain in JFK is trickling water so low off its spout, that I almost need to kiss that damned thing to drink water
I wonder how many others have kissed this thing like me, oh, please don’t open that door - I say to myself
Fine, I’ll drink water later
I ain’t never drinkin’ again
And last night, screw CJ for saying, one drink won’t kill you dude - when I was all ready and behaved to go to bed early like the responsible adult that I am
Early to bed, early to rise, and help ol’ grandmas cross the street in Manhattan, am all about dat life, model citizen and good Samaritan you know
Y’ll believe that dont you ? that I’m responsible ? I’m … mostly, between Mondays and Fridays
I get to my gate and find my seat, I did have the foresight to get myself premium seats, Delta did allow me to do that because I’ve written so many fat checks to them this year
I sit … and close my eyes for a second
and my worst nightmares dance in front of my bloodshot, puffy and sleep deprived eyes
There’s an effin six month baby on his momma’s lap, sitting right next to me
Screw me, Jesus must really hate me
This baby is going to cry, this baby is going to move, this thing is going to get finicky because you know, somethin’ about the air pressure or compressed air hurts its ears
Something about air pressure and ear drums, I don’t know
Screw physics, I failed high school physics and barely made it out of tenth grade
and this thing is going to shriek at a frequency so high that only puppies can hear it at some point
this thing ? I can feel you judging me, its palpable
Yes - this thing
This lil’ tyrannical bundle of satan is going to be next to me for the next eight hours on my way to Rome
Now, this is not a popular opinion, and I cannot say this out loud, but if most people feel like me about babies on airplanes, then FAA will simply not allow babies to board airplanes
Are you a certified moron, you ask ? this baby ain’t sadistic, its ears hurt and you should be ashamed for hatin’ on babies - you say to me with a look of pure disgust, like the one on Bill Belichick’s face when Brady overthrows an open receiver
I get it …
Most people -in and outside- this plane feel the same way you do, which is the whole goddamned reason why they allow babies on airplanes
I cannot say very House’ian things like, ‘If you don’t shut this baby up, I’mma slip this baby half a valium’
That wouldn’t go down well with neither the momma nor the flight attendant … and I really want to see the colosseum again
And that in a nutshell … is the stock market
Some people think babies are unquestioned bundles of joy, and hungover scallywags like me think they are the minions of the anti-christ … a clarion call for labrador puppies when they cry
Whichever faction has more people, that’s how the stock market behaves. The stock market at any given moment is an assimilation of all of our feels - well, at least, the feels of those who are trading at that very moment
Most of the time, we are trying to guess what the rest of y’all trading would do … before you do it
The stock market had record gains during the election week
NASDAQ
S&P 500
Russell 2000 Index (Small Caps)
Here is the most intuitive question that anyone would ask
How can the stock market have record gains, when so many people felt the pain of prices and inflation in the economy, and decided not to vote for the incumbent ?
‘tis a perfectly legitimate question
Allow me
It’s because the psychology of trading is a little bit different - than the financial fundamentals of a firm and its stock price
People are struggling because prices are high, but in a very screwed up way that actually explains why corporations are doing well, and hence their stock prices are high
Corporations did significant markups because, well, its America baby - they can, and hence they do
and that in part drove the prices higher, which is why people felt so negatively about the economy
Two seemingly divergent things can co-exist at the same time : people can feel negatively about the economy and the stock market can spike its merry way to the moon
How ?
It’s because trading is a little bit different from economic fundamentals, at least timing driven trading is
This is generally how we trade a few days before seismic events - such as election results, and to a smaller extent, the Fed cutting interest rates in October
We place all our trades before the event, not after. We want to capture the stock before the price spike happens, not after its all been priced in
Since we know that stock market hates uncertainties, we also know, it loves lack of uncertainties … that sounds like fortune cookie wisdom, but indulge me for a brief moment and I’ll explain
Regardless of who wins, or won, whether its the Vice President or Donald Trump, we knew (at least on Wall Street, and in general, people in finance and markets), that when they announce a winner, the stock market would skyrocket
… and it did
So regardless of our political affiliations, we bought more at opening bell on Tuesday (11/5)
… and waited
and most importantly, I cannot emphasize this enough
… prayed
Hell, I prayed to multiple Gods
We have no idea what’s going to happen - but sometimes, it works out. If you are fine with rational and calculated risk, then you have a shot
At that point, we are not trading based on fundamentals of any corporation or the strength of the economy. Hell, one can buy an S&P ETF or NASDAQ ETF if you want to get exposure to the whole economy, as opposed to buying any -one- janky stock that tanks because - Elon had a bad day
At that point
We are basically trading based on what we think y’all would do … essentially our best guess on what everyone else in the market is most likely to do ?
Our guess was, once the uncertainty is gone, everyone would think like us, and buy more
… and they did
and when more people buy rather than sell (we call this net buying), the stock price increases, which led to record gains
This is also the reason why I did not tell the air stewardess to shut this baby up, because I knew it is very likely not the opinion of most people on my flight, and if I do say that, then my chance of seeing Rome is going to go up in flames, or in the case of the stock market, I’d end up losing my pants and shoes at this rodeo
It’s just a case of trying to understand what everyone else is thinkin’ - before the event happens
We try to guess what the critical mass of people would do … there is that other approach too, being right when everyone else is wrong about the stock price, but that is much harder
And if it is between easy and hard, I’mma choose easy … six days and thrice on a Sunday. When things go really south, I also try and blame other people, but that’s not really pertinent to this conversation
That’s just a general rule I have in life
Blame Randy, just blame everything on Randy
Sure, the stock market is tied to the fundamentals of the economy and the firms trading in the market, but the psychology of trading and market timing is slightly different
We don’t consider the market to be a separate entity, rather, we try and view the world through the looking glass of the market in itself
Most professional traders do this at an insanely beautiful level, it’s fun to watch them work : there is no finance and then the world that we treat as exogenous … finance is the world
This broadly applies to trading before any seismic event as well
Never yell about the shrieking baby on the plane, they’ll throw you out for being unhinged
Understanding what everyone else might be thinkin’, might get me to Rome, and sometimes … help understand the stock market
And one more thang :
I ain’t never drinkin’ again
Source of inspiration for this style of prose : Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas by Hunter S. Thompson
What a fun fricken' read! Great post, Deepak